I had the pleasure yesterday of attending another one of the ‘conversations’ held by the Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities. The presentation was from Dr. Torben Drewes of Trent University, who is conducting a HEQCO research project on labour market outcomes of post-secondary graduates in Ontario. The primary goals of the project were to determine if there is, or will soon be, an over-supply of university and/or college graduates and if there is the right mix of subject being studied.
While recognizing that the ideal measure for this type of assessment would be to determine the social rate of return per student in PSE, it was determined that the more feasible measurement is the earnings premia for PSE graduates over students with only a high school diploma. A growing over-supply or mismatch in the fields of study should result in declining or shifting earnings premia. However, the Canadian evidence is that the earning premium continues to increase. From 1980 to 2005, the earnings premium for a Bachelor’s degree increased from 32% to 40% for males, and from 45% to 51% for females. This increase has grown steadily, though it is beginning to flat-line slightly for males. The rate of return, taking into account lost income during the period of study, was 13% for males and 17% for females.
The effect on annual earnings between fields of study shows that graduates of the humanities, social sciences, and physical/life sciences are below the average, while graduates of education, engineering, and math are above the average. While this isn’t particularly surprising, it is interesting to see that the gap between graduates of the humanities and the average has grown substantially since the 1980s. The author suggested though that the relatively steady employment rates could indicates that graduates of these programs and other more general programs (social and physical sciences) fill an important role in providing versatile employees for the changing market economy. Finally, it was shown that the incidence of self-reported over-qualification for jobs after graduation is on the decline.
The presentation concluded that there is very little evidence of “over-supply” of graduates in Ontario. This is consistent with previous findings from HEQCO and the Institute for Competitiveness and Prosperity. Furthermore, despite Canada’s leading PSE attainment rate amongst OECD countries, much of that advantage is due to our robust college system. Ontario ranked only 16 of 21 in attainment of baccalaureate attainment amongst jurisdictions of similar populations and economic structures, according to the Martin Prosperity Institute. For this and many other reasons, OUSA continues to support the Premier’s continued push for increasing the PSE and university attainment rates of the province. However, we remain concerned about the real and perceived barriers preventing equal representation in our universities amongst low-income students, students with disabilities, Aboriginal students, students with dependants, rural and northern students, and first generation students. While it is encouraging to hear that our students are achieving personal and financial success after graduation, it is imperative that all of our province’s citizens have access to these benefits.
Sam Andrey
OUSA Director of Research & Policy Analysis
